Abayneh Elias

Work place: Dire Dawa University, Department of Medicine, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia



Research Interests: Medical Informatics


Abayneh Elias graduated in Medical Biochemistry (MSc. in Medical Biochemistry) in November, 2015 from Medical College Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia. He has conducted his thesis on the effect of traditional medicinal plants on the treatment of non-communicable diseases, specially dyslipidemia and hypertension in ex-vivo and in-vivo experiments in Swiss albino mice and guinea pigs and he found excellent results. Currently he is serving as lecturer in Dire Dawa University; he has been lecturing students of different departments of Health Sciences and Medicine since September, 2010. He is also actively participating in conducting researches and published papers.

Author Articles
Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics and the Impact of Prevention Strategies: A Case of Ethiopia

By Akalu Abriham Demsis Dejene Tadele Abera Abayneh Elias

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5815/ijmsc.2021.04.05, Pub. Date: 8 Dec. 2021

At the end of 2019 the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared as a major health hazard by the world health organization (WHO) and the only available way of stopping this threat was via non-pharmaceutical approach. Most authors have studied COVID-19 transmission dynamics using mathematical modeling by involving the basic (major) compartments. In this study we have formulated a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 which incorporates almost all possible scenarios at present. We have also analyzed the impact of prevention and control strategies. The model has satisfied all the basic properties that infectious disease model should fulfill; Boundedness, positivity of its solutions, stability analysis, epidemic equilibrium point, basic reproduction number and local stability of the disease free equilibrium. We introduced a self-protection parameter, m to analyze the impact of physical distancing, staying at home, using masks, washing hands and so on. The impact of isolation and quarantine has been analyzed and their effects on the number of Exposed, infected and dead people were clearly discussed. In addition to these, the effects of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals on the value of basic reproduction number have been examined. The numerical simulations of this study indicate that the government should increase isolation, quarantine and self-protection rates. Additionally to minimize the contact rate between susceptible and asymptotic individuals, self-protection at all cost and everywhere has to be done, so that both symptomatic and importantly asymptomatic individuals stop transmitting the virus.

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