A method for semantic graph analysis of the evolution of internet fraud is proposed based on the construction and comparative analysis of temporal semantic networks. The study is conducted using a corpus of 51,755 thematic documents retrieved from the InfoStream information system covering the period 2011–2025. A Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG)-based workflow was employed to retrieve relevant document contexts and support their semantic processing during network construction. Temporal semantic networks representing the conceptual structure of internet fraud at successive stages of its evolution were constructed for three five-year intervals, together with an integral semantic network characterizing the stable conceptual core of the subject domain.
The topological characteristics of the networks were analyzed using the framework of graph theory—specifically degree, betweenness, and eigenvector centrality—enabling the quantitative assessment of structural changes, the identification of concepts with a high transformational role, and the tracking of thematic cluster evolution. It is demonstrated that the development of internet fraud is predominantly evolutionary in nature, occurring through the restructuring of existing semantic structures rather than their complete replacement.
Building upon this foundation, a hypothesis of structural continuity for semantic networks is formulated, and a model for forecasting their evolution is proposed. This model involves estimating the structural transformation operator, predicting the emergence of new concepts and semantic relationships, and constructing the forecasted network for the subsequent time interval. The validity of the proposed approach is confirmed through retrospective validation, which entails forecasting semantic networks for the subsequent period using solely data from preceding temporal slices, followed by a comparison between the forecasted and actual structures. The obtained results demonstrate the potential of utilizing temporal semantic-graph analysis as a tool for the early detection of structural changes in the information space and the forecasting of new trends in the development of internet fraud. The retrospective validation confirmed the model's high predictive capability, achieving a Precision of 0.870, a Recall of 0.816, and an F1-score of 0.842 for the 2021–2025 forecast interval, alongside a strong rank correlation (ρ = 0.811) in preserving node centrality. These quantitative results demonstrate the practical validity of temporal semantic-graph analysis as a tool for the early detection of structural changes and the forecasting of new trends in the development of internet fraud.

The study is devoted to assessing the risks of cyber threats in the future based on expert sampling patterns. One of the key problems of modern cybersecurity is the dynamic nature of threats that change under the influence of technological progress and socio-economic factors. In this context, the authors consider a methodological approach that involves the use of a multi-level analysis of expert opinions. The main emphasis is placed on taking into account the different points of view, experience and professional activities of experts from the public, private and academic sectors. An important stage of the study is the procedure of data cleaning to form a representative sample that takes into account only logically consistent responses of experts. The paper focuses on the integration of the expert sample patterns‘ features. The key differences in threat assessments between different groups of experts depending on their professional role and experience are identified. This made it possible to formulate comprehensive recommendations for strategic cyber risk management focused on both short-term and long-term priorities. The study makes a significant contribution to understanding the peculiarities of cyber risk assessment through the use of multivariate analysis of expert opinions. The proposed methodology allows not only to improve the quality of forecasts of future cyber threats, but also contributes to the creation of adaptive cybersecurity strategies that take into account the specifics of each sector. The findings of the study emphasize the importance of a multidimensional approach to analyzing cyber threats, taking into account the specifics of each expert group. Integration of assessments and consideration of local peculiarities are key to the development of adaptive and effective cyber defense strategies focused on global and local challenges.

Currently, the means of semantic segmentation of images, which are based on the use of neural networks, are increasingly being used in computer systems for various purposes. Despite significant progress in this industry, one of the most important unsolved problems is the task of adapting a neural network model to the conditions for selecting an object mask in an image. The features of such a task necessitate determining the type and parameters of convolutional neural networks underlying the encoder and decoder. As a result of the research, an appropriate method has been developed that allows adapting the neural network encoder and decoder to the following conditions of the segmentation problem: image size, number of color channels, acceptable minimum segmentation accuracy, acceptable maximum computational complexity of segmentation, the need to label segments, the need to select several segments, the need to select deformed , displaced and rotated objects, allowable maximum computational complexity of training a neural network model, allowable training time for a neural network model. The main stages of the method are related to the following procedures: determination of the list of image parameters to be registered; formation of training example parameters for the neural network model used for object selection; determination of the type of CNN encoder and decoder that are most effective under the conditions of the given task; formation of a representative educational sample; substantiation of the parameters that should be used to assess the accuracy of selection; calculation of the values of the design parameters of the CNN of the specified type for the encoder and decoder; assessment of the accuracy of selection and, if necessary, refinement of the architecture of the neural network model. The developed method was verified experimentally on examples of semantic segmentation of images containing objects such as a car. The obtained experimental results show that the application of the proposed method allows, avoiding complex long-term experiments, to build a NN that, with a sufficiently short training period, ensures the achievement of image segmentation accuracy of about 0.8, which corresponds to the best systems of similar purpose. It is shown that it is advisable to correlate the ways of further research with the development of approaches to the use of special modules such as ResNet, Inception and mechanisms of the Partial convolution type used in modern types of deep neural networks to increase their computational efficiency in the encoder and decoder.

The paper focuses on the study of cyber security in Ukraine and creation of a predictive model for reducing the risk of identified cyber threats. Forecasting is performed using a linear regression model, taking into account the optimal dependence of specific threats in the field of cyber security of Ukraine on variables characterizing capabilities / vulnerabilities of cyber security. An unique empirical base was used for the analysis, which was formed on the basis of an expert survey of the cyber security system’s subjects in Ukraine. In order to increase the representativeness of the research, based on the selection of reliable expert population, data cleaning is provided. Methodological research is based on a risk-oriented approach, which provided a risk assessment of the spread of cyber threats and, on this basis, the determination of capabilities / vulnerabilities of the cyber security system in Ukraine. The value of the research is formed not only by assessing the risks of the spread of cyber threats, but by a more in-depth analysis of the dependence of the cyber threats’ level on the vulnerability of the cyber security system based on the search for optimal and statistically significant relationships. The experiment was conducted on the basis of determining the optimal model for forecasting the risk of the spread of one of the most significant threats in Ukraine – data confidentiality breach (54.67%), depending on the variables that characterize the capabilities / vulnerabilities of the cyber security system in Ukraine. The experiment showed that the optimal model emphasizes the predictors characterizing the vulnerability of the organizational cyber security system – "Departmental level of cybersecurity monitoring" and capabilities: "The level of use of risk management approaches at the operational level" and "The level of methodological support for cybersecurity of the critical infrastructure system".