An Empirical Predictive Model for Formation Rate of the Day 5 Blastocyst

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Xi Wang 1,* Zhongqiang Liu 1

1. School of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, 454000, China

* Corresponding author.


Received: 1 Nov. 2022 / Revised: 10 Dec. 2022 / Accepted: 18 Feb. 2023 / Published: 8 May 2023

Index Terms

Day 5 blastocyst, Nomogram, Logistic regression, Hosmer-Lemeshow test


Day 5 (D5) blastocyst transfers present higher clinical pregnancy and live birth rates than day 6 in both fresh and frozen transfers [1]. To investigate the D5 blastocyst formation rate, in this study, we first collected clinical data from a hospital in Jiaozuo and partitioned the data into training set and validation set. We conducted univariate logistic regression analyses, which were possible predictors of the D5 blastocyst formation rate, on 12 patient covariates. According to the univariate analysis, we determined 10 covariates were suitable for multivariate analysis. Finally, we identified five covariates to construct a logistic regression model to predict the D5 blastocyst formation rate. We also used the receiver operating characteristic curve, the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and the calibration curve to verify the accuracy of this model. The results showed that logistic regression model of D5 blastocyst formation rate directly reflected the relationship between transplantation results and covariates. According to the model, doctors can provide guidance to patients before treatment and improve the rate of blastocyst formation by changing patients' physical fitness. The model has certain clinical application value.

Cite This Paper

Xi Wang, Zhongqiang Liu, "An Empirical Predictive Model for Formation Rate of the Day 5 Blastocyst", International Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Computing(IJMSC), Vol.9, No.2, pp. 22-30, 2023. DOI: 10.5815/ijmsc.2023.02.03


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