Birth Rate Study of Henan Province Based on Ridge Regression Model

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Mengke Ye 1,*

1. School of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, 454000, China

* Corresponding author.


Received: 7 Jun. 2023 / Revised: 1 Jul. 2023 / Accepted: 23 Jul. 2023 / Published: 8 Dec. 2023

Index Terms

Birth rate, Influencing factors, Multicollinearity, Ridge regression, Ridge trace map


In order to explore the underlying reasons for the decline in birth rate, this article selects 12 explanatory variables and uses ridge regression method to study the birth rate in Henan Province from 2015 to 2021. Research has shown that four factors, namely the average salary of urban unit employees, the urbanization degree, the ratio of female employees with a university degree or above, and the population mortality rate, can not explain the birth rate. However, the proportion of gross domestic product of the second and third industries, as well as the proportion of female population over 15 years of age who are illiterate, has a positive impact on the car success rate. The gross domestic product per capita, the number of beds per 10000 people in medical institutions, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the per capita disposable income of rural residents, the adolescent dependency ratio, and the elderly dependency ratio have a negative impact on the birth rate. Through the research in this article, the main factors affecting the birth rate in Henan Province have been identified, and policy recommendations for improving the birth rate have been proposed. The positive impact represents increasing investment in these factors, which can effectively improve the birth rate in Henan Province and solve the serious problems we are currently facing. The negative factor is the opposite.

Cite This Paper

Mengke Ye, "Birth Rate Study of Henan Province Based on Ridge Regression Model", International Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Computing(IJMSC), Vol.9, No.4, pp. 10-19, 2023. DOI:10.5815/ijmsc.2023.04.02


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