IJIEEB Vol. 17, No. 4, 8 Aug. 2025
Cover page and Table of Contents: PDF (size: 853KB)
PDF (853KB), PP.1-13
Views: 0 Downloads: 0
Ensemble Learning, LSTM, Financial Forecasting, Deep Leaning, Stock Market Analysis
In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as powerful tools for analyzing and predict- ing complex patterns in sequential data across various fields. This study employs an ensemble of advanced deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bi-Directional LSTM, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), LSTM Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and LSTM with Self-Attention, to enhance prediction accuracy in time series forecasting. These models are applied to three distinct financial datasets: Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, and INFY.NS, we conduct a thorough comparative analysis to assess their performance. Utilizing K-fold cross-validation, we convert loss (MSE) into RMSE and MAPE, which help estimate accuracy .we achieved train accuracies of 97.46% for Tata Motors, 75.93% for INFY.NS, and 56.60% for HDFC Bank. Our empirical results highlight the strengths and limitations of each model within the ensemble framework and pro- vide valuable insights into their effectiveness in capturing complex patterns in financial time series data. This research underscores the potential of deep learning-based ensemble techniques for improving stock price forecasting and offers significant implications for investors and the development of sophisticated trading and risk management systems.
Chandrayani Rokde, Jagdish Chakole, Aishwarya Ukey, "Financial Forecasting with Deep Learning Models Based Ensemble Technique in Stock Market Analysis", International Journal of Information Engineering and Electronic Business(IJIEEB), Vol.17, No.4, pp. 1-13, 2025. DOI:10.5815/ijieeb.2025.04.01
[1]Abu-Mostafa, Y.S., Atiya, A.F.: Introduction to financial forecasting. Applied intelligence 6, 205–213 (1996)
[2]Samonas, M.: Financial Forecasting, Analysis, and Modelling: a Framework for Long-term Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons, (2015)
[3]Wasserbacher, H., Spindler, M.: Machine learning for financial forecasting, planning and analysis: recent developments and pitfalls. Digital Finance 4(1), 63–88 (2022)
[4]Kingdon, J.: Intelligent Systems and Financial Forecasting. Springer, (2012)
[5]5Enyindah, P., Onwuachu Uzochukwu, C.: A neural network approach to financial forecasting. International Journal of Computer Applications 135(8), 28–32 (2016)
[6]Tripathy, N.: Forecasting gold price with auto regressive integrated moving average model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 7(4), 324–329 (2017)
[7]Vuong, P.H., Dat, T.T., Mai, T.K., Uyen, P.H., et al.: Stock-price forecasting based on xgboost and lstm. Computer Systems Science & Engineering 40(1) (2022)
[8]Kavzoglu, T., Teke, A.: Predictive performances of ensemble machine learning algorithms in land- slide susceptibility mapping using random forest, extreme gradient boosting (xgboost) and natural gradient boosting (ngboost). Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering 47(6), 7367–7385 (2022)
[9]Sezer, O.B., Gudelek, M.U., Ozbayoglu, A.M.: Financial time series forecasting with deep learning: A systematic literature review: 2005–2019. Applied soft computing 90, 106181 (2020)
[10]Khalil, F., Pipa, G.: Is deep-learning and natural language processing transcending the financial forecasting? investigation through lens of news analytic process. Computational Economics 60(1), 147–171 (2022)
[11]Cao, J., Li, Z., Li, J.: Financial time series forecasting model based on ceemdan and lstm. Physica A: Statistical mechanics and its applications 519, 127–139 (2019)
[12]Siami-Namini, S., Tavakoli, N., Namin, A.S.: A comparative analysis of forecasting financial time series using arima, lstm, and bilstm. arXiv preprint arXiv:1911.09512 (2019)
[13]Schaffer, A.L., Dobbins, T.A., Pearson, S.-A.: Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) models: a guide for evaluating large-scale health interventions. BMC medical research methodology 21, 1–12 (2021)
[14]Wang, L., Ma, F., Liu, J., Yang, L.: Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the garch-midas model. International Journal of Forecasting 36(2), 684–694 (2020)
[15]Dai, X., Cerqueti, R., Wang, Q., Xiao, L.: Volatility forecasting: a new garch-type model for fuzzy sets-valued time series. Annals of Operations Research, 1–41 (2023)
[16]Shmueli, G., Polak, J.: Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-on Guide. Axelrod schnall publishers, (2024)
[17]Kurani, A., Doshi, P., Vakharia, A., Shah, M.: A comprehensive comparative study of artificial neural network (ann) and support vector machines (svm) on stock forecasting. Annals of Data Science 10(1), 183–208 (2023)
[18]Chhajer, P., Shah, M., Kshirsagar, A.: The applications of artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and long–short term memory for stock market prediction. Decision Analytics Journal 2, 100015 (2022)
[19]Zhong, K., Ma, J., Han, M.: Online prediction of noisy time series: Dynamic adaptive sparse kernel recursive least squares from sparse and adaptive tracking perspective. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence 91, 103547 (2020)
[20]Han, M., Zhang, S., Xu, M., Qiu, T., Wang, N.: Multivariate chaotic time series online prediction based on improved kernel recursive least squares algorithm. IEEE transactions on cybernetics 49(4), 1160–1172 (2018)
[21]Cao, L.-J., Tay, F.E.H.: Support vector machine with adaptive parameters in financial time series forecasting. IEEE Transactions on neural networks 14(6), 1506–1518 (2003)
[22]Pradeepkumar, D., Ravi, V.: Forecasting financial time series volatility using particle swarm optimization trained quantile regression neural network. Applied Soft Computing 58, 35–52 (2017)
[23]Alameer, Z., Abd Elaziz, M., Ewees, A.A., Ye, H., Jianhua, Z.: Forecasting gold price fluctuations using improved multilayer perceptron neural network and whale optimization algorithm. Resources Policy 61, 250–260 (2019)
[24]Chen, Y., Zhang, G.: Exchange rates determination based on genetic algorithms using mendel’s principles: Investigation and estimation under uncertainty. Information fusion 14(3), 327–333 (2013)
[25]Ang, K.K., Quek, C.: Stock trading using rspop: A novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy approach. IEEE transactions on neural networks 17(5), 1301–1315 (2006)
[26]Chang, P.-C., Fan, C.-Y.: A hybrid system integrating a wavelet and tsk fuzzy rules for stock price forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C (Applications and Reviews) 38(6), 802–815 (2008)
[27]Li, C., Chiang, T.-W.: Complex neurofuzzy arima forecasting—a new approach using complex fuzzy sets. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 21(3), 567–584 (2012)
[28]Jilani, T.A., Burney, S.M.A.: A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 387(12), 2857–2862 (2008)
[29]Wei, L.-Y., Chen, T.-L., Ho, T.-H.: A hybrid model based on adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system to forecast taiwan stock market. Expert Systems with Applications 38(11), 13625–13631 (2011)
[30]Sun, B., Guo, H., Karimi, H.R., Ge, Y., Xiong, S.: Prediction of stock index futures prices based on fuzzy sets andmultivariate fuzzy time series. Neurocomputing 151, 1528–1536 (2015)
[31]Rubio, A., Bermu´dez, J.D., Vercher, E.: Improving stock index forecasts by using a new weighted fuzzy-trend time seriesmethod. Expert Systems with Applications 76, 12–20 (2017)
[32]Nguyen, L., Nov´ak, V.: Forecasting seasonal time series based on fuzzy techniques. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 361, 114129 (2019)
[33]Nov´ak, V., Perfilieva, I., Dvorak, A.: Insight Into Fuzzy Modeling. John Wiley & Sons, (2016)
[34]Yamak, Peter T., Li Yujian, and Pius K. Gadosey. "A comparison between arima, lstm, and gru for time series forecasting." In Proceedings of the 2019 2nd international conference on algorithms, computing and artificial intelligence, pp. 49-55. 2019.
[35]Gao, Ya, Rong Wang, and Enmin Zhou. "Stock prediction based on optimized LSTM and GRU models." Scientific Programming 2021,
[36]Shiller, R. J.. Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives. (2003)